Difference between revisions of "User:ARuiz"

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(Created page with "Week 1: * Read Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Random House, 2015 by Tetlock, Philip, and Dan Gardner. * Met with mentor for background on the GasDay La...")
 
 
(8 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
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* Started researching the scientific literature for examples of uses of probabilistic forecasting.
 
* Started researching the scientific literature for examples of uses of probabilistic forecasting.
 
* Worked with the Brier score metric in order to identify potential flaws.
 
* Worked with the Brier score metric in order to identify potential flaws.
 +
 +
Week 2:
 +
 +
* Further reading into applications for probabilistic forecasting.
 +
* Implemented basic probabilistic forecasting scoring metrics (pinball, Winkler, Brier).
 +
* Read papers on probabilistic load forecasting.
 +
* Familiarized myself with GasDay Labs' database.
 +
 +
Week 3:
 +
 +
* Attended ethics training
 +
* Started learning about machine learning by implementing simple multivariate linear regression algorithms.
 +
* Read some of the scientific literature for scoring metrics and probabilistic forecast properties.
 +
 +
Week 4:
 +
 +
* Learned about categorical classification machine learning algorithms.
 +
* Read papers about about different strengths and weaknesses in scoring metrics.
 +
* Prepared presentation for GasDay talk.
 +
 +
Week 5:
 +
 +
* learned about regularization for some machine learning models.
 +
* Read uncertainty quantification papers.
 +
* Read papers on probabilistic forecasting.
 +
* Prepared and practiced presentation for REU talk.
 +
 +
Week 6:
 +
 +
* Started learning about the implementation of neural networks.
 +
* Interviewed Matt Thomas for insight on uncertainty quantification.
 +
* Read some of the scientific literature on uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasting.
 +
* Met with Dr. Corliss
 +
 +
Week 7:
 +
 +
* Interviewed Dr. Lin on uncertainty quantification.
 +
* Met with Mohammad Saber to discuss probabilistic forecasting and our work.
 +
* Finished writing some of the sections for the REU report.
 +
* Met with Dr. Corliss.
 +
* Attended poster presentation talk for the REU lunch.
 +
* Read some sections of  Gneiting, Tilmann, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation." Journal of the American Statistical Association102.477 (2007): 359-378.
 +
 +
Week 8:
 +
 +
* Met with Dr. Corliss
 +
* Tried to find information on uncertainty quantification.
 +
* Read some sections of  Gneiting, Tilmann, Fadoua Balabdaoui, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 69.2 (2007): 243-268.
 +
* Worked on scoring metrics paper.
 +
* Worked on poster presentation.
 +
 +
Week 9:
 +
 +
* Met with Dr. Corliss.
 +
* Prepared and gave seminar presentation at GasDay.
 +
* REU Lunch.
 +
* Gave poster presentation.
 +
* Tried to find and come up with new examples for probabilistic forecasting.
 +
* Read some sections of Gneiting, Tilmann, Fadoua Balabdaoui, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 69.2 (2007): 243-268.
 +
 +
Week 10:
 +
 +
* Met with Dr. Corliss.
 +
* Worked on scoring metrics paper.
 +
* Attended last REU presentations.
 +
* Answered last REU survey.

Latest revision as of 20:03, 5 August 2016

Week 1:

  • Read Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Random House, 2015 by Tetlock, Philip, and Dan Gardner.
  • Met with mentor for background on the GasDay Labs mission and our research topic.
  • Met with mentor for background on the specifics in GasDay Labs models.
  • Started researching the scientific literature for examples of uses of probabilistic forecasting.
  • Worked with the Brier score metric in order to identify potential flaws.

Week 2:

  • Further reading into applications for probabilistic forecasting.
  • Implemented basic probabilistic forecasting scoring metrics (pinball, Winkler, Brier).
  • Read papers on probabilistic load forecasting.
  • Familiarized myself with GasDay Labs' database.

Week 3:

  • Attended ethics training
  • Started learning about machine learning by implementing simple multivariate linear regression algorithms.
  • Read some of the scientific literature for scoring metrics and probabilistic forecast properties.

Week 4:

  • Learned about categorical classification machine learning algorithms.
  • Read papers about about different strengths and weaknesses in scoring metrics.
  • Prepared presentation for GasDay talk.

Week 5:

  • learned about regularization for some machine learning models.
  • Read uncertainty quantification papers.
  • Read papers on probabilistic forecasting.
  • Prepared and practiced presentation for REU talk.

Week 6:

  • Started learning about the implementation of neural networks.
  • Interviewed Matt Thomas for insight on uncertainty quantification.
  • Read some of the scientific literature on uncertainty quantification and probabilistic forecasting.
  • Met with Dr. Corliss

Week 7:

  • Interviewed Dr. Lin on uncertainty quantification.
  • Met with Mohammad Saber to discuss probabilistic forecasting and our work.
  • Finished writing some of the sections for the REU report.
  • Met with Dr. Corliss.
  • Attended poster presentation talk for the REU lunch.
  • Read some sections of Gneiting, Tilmann, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Strictly proper scoring rules, prediction, and estimation." Journal of the American Statistical Association102.477 (2007): 359-378.

Week 8:

  • Met with Dr. Corliss
  • Tried to find information on uncertainty quantification.
  • Read some sections of Gneiting, Tilmann, Fadoua Balabdaoui, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 69.2 (2007): 243-268.
  • Worked on scoring metrics paper.
  • Worked on poster presentation.

Week 9:

  • Met with Dr. Corliss.
  • Prepared and gave seminar presentation at GasDay.
  • REU Lunch.
  • Gave poster presentation.
  • Tried to find and come up with new examples for probabilistic forecasting.
  • Read some sections of Gneiting, Tilmann, Fadoua Balabdaoui, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 69.2 (2007): 243-268.

Week 10:

  • Met with Dr. Corliss.
  • Worked on scoring metrics paper.
  • Attended last REU presentations.
  • Answered last REU survey.
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