User:John.Bihn

Personal Info

John Bihn is a statistics major at Williams College. He is a member of the Williams Ultimate Frisbee Organization (WUFO), the Moocho Macho Moocow Military Marching Band, and writes for the Williams Record. His favorite crayon is Purple Mountains' Majesty.

Research Topic

Using statistical models to estimate the behavior of storm surge during a hurricane or tropical storm.

Milestones

Week 1 (6/1 - 6/5)

• Read about statistical surrogates
• Plot test function
• Find optimization routine in Python
• Become comfortable with LaTeX

Week 2 (6/5 - 6/12)

• Complete eading on storm surges
  • Technical paper from Dr. Spiller
  • Non-technical, independent research
• Use optimization routine to find parameters to fit

Week 3 (6/15 - 6/19)

• Play around with reading data files from computer experiment
  • Hopefully storm surge data – maybe move to Week 4
• Implement optimization of model posterior (∴)

Week 4 (6/22 – 6/26)

• Continue on (∴)
• Play around with reading data files and plotting outputs
• Reading about Monte Carlo calculations
• Regroup and discuss plan for July

Week 5 (6/29 – 7/3)

• Mini-presentation on July 2nd
• Work on applying surrogate to storm surge model (♦)
• Identify challenges in doing so

Week 6 (7/6 – 7/10)

• Continue to work on (♦)
• Use surrogate in probability calculation (∗)
• Discuss possible scenario model

Week 7 (7/13 – 7/17)

• Work on (♦) and (∗)

Week 8 (7/20 – 7/24)

• Work on (♦) and (∗)

Week 9 (7/27 – 7/30)

• Posters due July 29th

Week 10 (8/3 – 8/7)

• Finish presentations and papers