User:ARuiz

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Week 1:

  • Read Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Random House, 2015 by Tetlock, Philip, and Dan Gardner.
  • Met with mentor for background on the GasDay Labs mission and our research topic.
  • Met with mentor for background on the specifics in GasDay Labs models.
  • Started researching the scientific literature for examples of uses of probabilistic forecasting.
  • Worked with the Brier score metric in order to identify potential flaws.

Week 2:

  • Further reading into applications for probabilistic forecasting.
  • Implemented basic probabilistic forecasting scoring metrics (pinball, Winkler, Brier).
  • Read papers on probabilistic load forecasting.
  • Familiarized myself with GasDay Labs' database.