User:John.Bihn

Personal Info

John Bihn is a statistics major at Williams College. He is a member of the Williams Ultimate Frisbee Organization (WUFO), junior leader of the Moocho Macho Moocow Military Marching Band, and staff writer for the Williams Record. His favorite color crayon is Purple Mountains' Majesty.

Research Topic

Using statistical surrogates to estimate the behavior of storm surge during a hurricane or tropical storm. See here for more details.

Milestones

Weekly milestones can be found on our main project page, located here.

Daily Log

Week 1 (6/1 - 6/5)

Monday, June 1

• Attended introductory session; learned about REU program
• Met Dr. Spiller and research group over lunch
• Toured systems lab; learned about wiki with Dr. Dennis Brylow
• Filled out pre-REU survey
• Did preliminary readings before Tuesday’s meeting with Dr. Spiller

Tuesday, June 2

• Took tour of campus
• Filed paperwork with HR; received Marquette ID
• Learned about resources at library with Heather James
• Met with Dr. Spiller, set objectives to complete before meeting on Thursday
  • Objective: Determine how to predict a given function in Python by only using a sample of data points from the function
  • How to achieve: Use formula that relies on finding the optimal value of our parameter(s) (found using maximum likelihood (ML) equation)
• Examined the function in R and predicted function using selected values of parameter

Wednesday, June 3

• Added variance function to prediction in R; corrected mistakes in model
• Examined random selection of sample points in R
• Installed required packages for Python
• Met with Dr. Brylow to learned about Marquette email and time keeping
• Tested optimization routines in Python
• Attempted to optimize ML equation in Python

Thursday, June 4

• Determined routine for plotting in Python
• Organized code before meeting with Dr. Spiller
• Engaged in group discussion with Dr. Factor about the theory behind approaching a new problem
• Met with Dr. Spiller; developed research goals and project timeline
• Downloaded Liclipse IDE
• Plotted our function in Python

Friday, June 5

• Met as research group to review project
• Worked on understanding optimization routine, using it to find the global optimal point, and ensuring that it works in multiple dimensions
• Reviewed objectives of project, went step by step through each component of our approximating equation and ML equation
• Created project milestones and finished daily log
• Began working log of progress in LaTeX

Week 2 (6/5 - 6/12)

Monday, June 8

• Reviewed components of approximating equation and ML equation with Tao
• Identified challenges with performing calculations in Python
• Met with Dr. Spiller to review plan of attack, discuss how to approach preliminary research
• Worked on creating methods to create needed components of functions
• Developed a plot of our approximation in Python

Tuesday, June 9

• Refined approximation
• Created maximum likelihood function; made function compatible with optimize method
• Worked through difficulties with singularity in our matrices
• Obtained local minimum, plot of maximum likelihood function (though did not appear accurate)
• Performed introductory research on storm surges

Wednesday, June 10

• Corrected errors in our calculation of maximum likelihood function
• Found optimal value of parameter according to maximum likelihood function
• Adapted model to accommodate estimation of multiple parameters
• Continued introductory research on storm surges

Thursday, June 11

• Added variance function to Python code
• Generalized selection of known points
• Listened to sample presentation by Dr. Factor
• Met with Dr. Spiller, updated her on our progress and discussed paper by Westerink et al.

Friday, June 12

• Ensured variance function worked correctly
• Adjusted code so our approximation used optimal parameters in multiple dimensions
• Tested our approximation methods for other functions
• Polished code
• Read introduction of Westerink et al.

Week 3

Monday, June 15

• Worked through research paper (Westerink et al.)
• Identified important factors in storm surge model
• Developed questions for Dr. Spiller

Tuesday, June 16

• Prepared individually and as a group for meeting with Dr. Spiller
• Met with Dr. Spiller
  • Introduced to additional notes on GaSP
  • Discussed how to adapt our model to use different ML equation from notes
• Met with Dr. Brylow to discuss distinctions between research talks and research papers
• Began examining new ML equation; compared new equation with previous ML equation

Wednesday, June 17

• Continued comparing maximum likelihood equations
• Incorporated a least squares model into our approximation
• Met with Dr. Spiller to discuss structure of new ML equation
• Created project page on wiki
  • Edited description of project and personal page

Thursday, June 18

• Completed Responsible Conduct of Research (RCR) training
• Created methods for calculating the new ML equation
• Developed an approximation for our function using new ML equation

Friday, June 19

• Changed our approximation to fully incorporate least squares model
• Experimented with different functions, different number of known points
• Added reference prior into our ML equation
• Met with Dr. Spiller to determine potential adjustments to our equation
• Adapted maximum likelihood equation to be compatible with multiple dimensions
• Adjusted prior to allow for more than one input variable
• Explored plotting in three dimensions in Python

Week 4

Monday, June 22

• Continued adjusting ML equation to permit inputs from more than one variable
• Completed online portion of RCR training
• Added daily log to personal wiki page